Estimates of abundance south of 60°S for cetacean species sighted frequently on the 1978/79 to 1997/98 IWC/IDCR-SOWER sighting surveys

Abstract

Estimates of abundance are calculated for six cetacean species in the Southern Ocean south of 60° in the austral summer, using the IWC database estimation package (DESS). The sightings data in DESS were collected during the 1978/79 to 1997/98 IWC/IDCR and SOWER circumpolar surveys. Abundance estimates are developed for the first (1978/79–1983/84), second (1985/86–1990/91) and currently incomplete third (1991/92–1997/98) circumpolar sets of surveys. The strata surveyed in these three sets cover about 65%, 81% and 68% respectively of the open ocean area south of 60°S. The surveys were designed for Antarctic minke whales and may not be optimal for all these species. Furthermore, the estimates presented below (CVs in brackets) should not necessarily be considered as estimates for the whole Southern Hemisphere. Some results are also presented for hourglass dolphins and sei whales, but estimates of abundance are not considered reliable for those two species. Effective search half-width and mean school size were estimated by pooling across strata and years. Pooling is effected separately for each circumpolar set of surveys. Additional pooling across closing and passing modes did not introduce substantial bias. The most frequently sighted species were minke, southern bottlenose, sperm, humpback and killer whales; the effective search half-widths for all five increase over time. The sensitivity of the abundance estimates to a number of factors is investigated, none of which appears to impact the results substantially, except that the incorporation of ‘like species’ would increase the estimate for blue whales from the third circumpolar set of surveys by 25% and for fin whales by 61%. In general, the assumption that 100% of schools on the trackline are sighted introduces variable negative bias to estimates for all species. Only two significant trends in abundance over time (for comparable areas) were detected, but both may be artefacts of changes in survey design.