A role for Bayesian inference in cetacean population assessment

Résumé

Decisions concerning the management and conservation of cetacean populations depend upon knowledge of population parameters, which generally must be estimated from sample data using statistical models. However, data from the cetacean populations are often sparse, and resultant parameter estimates can be uncertain and difficult to obtain. This review uses examples from published work to highlight the utility of the Bayesian statistical paradigm as a suitable estimation framework in these situations. By evaluating the probability of obtaining the available data, given a specified estimator model, for a whole prior distribution of possible parameter values, the Bayesian approach is capable of quantifying the uncertainty associated with parameter estimates. The potential also exists for reducing uncertainty by incorporating relevant information into the prior distributions used in the Bayesian estimation procedure. The paper describes how the use of graphical model specification and graphical output of parameter estimates can make Bayesian methods attractive for data analysis and explains the recent advances in computational methods that have made Bayesian techniques more available for providing useful estimates of cetacean population parameters.