An examination of certain of the assumptions made in the Bayesian approach used to assess the eastern North Pacific stock of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus)

Résumé

An assessment of the eastern North Pacific stock of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) is conducted using a variant of the Bayesian stock assessment method of Wade (2002). This variant is based on the BALEEN II population dynamics model and uses parameters whose values are more familiar to members of the International Whaling Commission’s Scientific Committee. The sensitivity of the results to changes to some of the specifications used in the assessment is examined. The results are shown to be relatively insensitive to the first year considered in the analysis and the year for which a prior on absolute abundance is specified. An alternative Bayesian assessment method which involves projecting the population forward from pre-exploitation equilibrium in 1600 is also considered. As expected from previous assessments, results from this method are unable to mimic the recent trends in absolute abundance obtained from shore counts and are inconsistent with the fact that the fishery was commercially extinct by the end of the 19th Century. Allowing for underestimation of historical commercial and aboriginal catches provides improved consistency with recent trends in abundance but does not resolve these problems completely. The impact of process error (in the form of temporally correlated fluctuations in calf survival) on the dynamics of the population is found to be largely inconsequential in terms of resolving the inconsistency between historical catches and recent estimates of abundance.